But SERIOUSLY… When will lithium stocks recover!? Here are some clues 📝

Hey hey – lots to talk about in metals, stocks, and above all, opportunities.

So I went to a Benchmark Mineral Intelligence conference a few days ago and if you care about where the lithium price is going, you want to read this, as there are BIG insights here.

Let’s do this!

Just in case you don’t know them, Benchmark is one of the leading agencies in terms of pricing. They work on pricing critical minerals and lithium is obviously one of the most important there.

So they showed data we’ve collated in this chart here, showing us demand vs supply with the 2024 figures with the projection to 2025 and the rest of the decade. To have a more comprehensive view, we’re plotted these figures with a recent estimate from Macquarie and price forecasts from Goldman Sachs.

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And obviously last year we saw oversupply (the first group of columns) and that’s why the price is so depressed and all the lithium stocks are not doing well, which is really frustrating for all of us who believe in the long term case.

But as we get to 2026, things start to shift to a small deficit and it grows bigger the year after according to BMI. Macquarie sees a shift too, but a bit further away in 2027, and with a much larger scale.

Anson Resources also shared an optimistic outlook, as they view restocking demand to pull prices higher in the first half of the year. This aligns with our own view, although we see it happening a little later in the year.

However, there’s a big if (the plot thickens!).

Because of course there’s going to be another problem.

So many of you may have heard about AVZ Minerals, a formerly ASX-listed company that had a project called Manono in the DRC.

That project got into this whole confrontation and dispute between the government, the company, and now Zijin, the Chinese mining company is also in the picture.

So this is a huge mess that has been going on for years. It is uncertain whether that project will go into production any time soon, and investors got stuck with the private shares (investing in privately owned companies is not for everyone, I must admit, we have nerves of steel ha!).

However, if that happens, then Benchmark believes the market will go back into oversupply (the red column considers Manono).

I must say, though, I do believe companies with lithium production from brine will continue to better weather this price storm. For a refresher on why, see this post below.

Grades by mineral deposit types

Anyhow, we’ll have to wait and see what happens.

But we can be cautiously optimistic that a reprieve in pricing is near, enabling lithium stocks to recover.

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Sentiment clues

Trump is keeping us on our toes, following every announcement, with imminent tariffs coming across the board. Investors? Bullish.

https://twitter.com/paola_rojas/status/1893478647677259792

If you are reading this via email, click on the date to view the tweet above.

And before you get all flustered, I left Australia out on purpose in the poll.

We first discussed Trump’s potential effect for mining and related investments a few weeks ago, in case you missed it.

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Last week in the markets

Markets hate tariffs. And as someone who used to live in a country with tariffs on EVERYTHING, I despise them myself…

Aussie shares fell sharply on Friday as markets were spooked by the news of imposition of additional tariffs on China by the US. The #ASX200 lost 96pts or 1.2% to 8,172. Tech fared worst while miners weighed most on the index. Telcos was the sole sector in positive territory.

— CommSec (@CommSec) February 28, 2025

If you are reading this via email, click on the date to view the tweet above.

So far our 2025 predictions seem to be on track.

Meanwhile…

• Congo bans cobalt exports for four months to curb oversupply
• Trump’s Tariff Threat Sparks Global Race to Get Copper to the US
• Equinox and Calibre Mining combine to create a major Americas-focused gold producer in deal valued at ~C$7.7 billion
• Plus Nvidia earnings disappoint, oil dips to new 2025 low and Bitcoin plummets

Geopolitics are getting even more complex to navigate.

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