Gold vs. oil: I bet you haven’t thought of this

Hey hey – lots to talk about in metals, stocks, and above all, opportunities.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices flying, and everyone is suddenly an oil expert. But don’t worry, I don’t plan on pretending I am. My geologist father had integrity, and I think he instilled that in me early on.

Instead, I want to use this massive trend, and oil surpassing $110/bbl, to illustrate a point, and discuss a useful source of clues, a bit of a leading indicator of sorts.

As investors, we love leading indicators because they provide insights into where the puck is going (if you are also a Canucks fan, hello!). With the right strategy, we can turn these types of insights into returns or safeguard portfolios from various risks.

We rarely see, if at all, people talking about the correlation between Google searches and prices (be it individual stocks or commodities). I first noticed this in relation to gold in 2025, and since then, it has opened my eyes to an accurate tool.

Now, for this exercise, we looked at the last 3 months in the US. We can clearly see how “gold price” consistently outperformed searches for “oil price”, with a peak in February, coinciding with the ATH in gold. Checks out.

But when we zoom in on the last week after the Iran conflict exploded, there is an inflection point. In fact, searches for “oil price” have surpassed “gold price”.

As this conflict continues, all else equal, more interest should flow to this and to the oil trade.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the relationship between certain prices and Google Trends for a while, and so far it has been useful.

Late last year, I noticed that ‘silver price’ was trending. Doesn’t happen often. I wondered… is this a sign that the price will surge further over the next few days? It sure did. A few weeks later, $RIO was trending (albeit for a short time). It was briefly overbought shortly after.

When using these data points, there are 2 levels to consider:

• Searches: these are useful to gauge interest, relative to the topic itself and may be compared with one or more other topics to assess which one has more volume/velocity. Gold vs oil is an example, as shown above.
• Trending: useful for more niche, shorter-term specific trends, and to see momentum building. Best when by category and can be broken down by country as needed. Examples are the case of silver and Rio Tinto I just mentioned.

Overlaying these search charts with price charts will show you how strong these correlations can be.

But I know what you’re thinking…

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Let’s put a pin on it for a sec and talk about what we’re paying attention to this week:

Macro

• Gold, silver and copper pulling back, dollar strengthening: As investors race to move part of their holdings to cash (more particularly, USD), precious metals and copper are retracing from recent highs. Oil soaring past $110/bbl points to inflation dangers and central banks are now expected to hold or even
• Economic calendar: US inflation data and economic growth, Auto production in Mexico, vehicle sales in China, biz confidence in Australia. Copper output from Chile fell 3%, after dropping 4.7% the previous month.
• Regulatory: Ontario is expanding support for mining, earmarking billions for new high-capacity power transmission lines and placing C$500 million in a fund to build mineral processing plants.

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Meanwhile…

These companies are making bold moves.

Deals, capital raising and IPOs

• US Antimony receives $27M Defense Production Act funding

Hudbay Minerals to buy Arizona Sonoran in $1B deal https://t.co/LazactqZDy

— MINING.COM (@mining) March 2, 2026

*If you’re viewing this via email, click on the date to view the full tweet and any available sources.

• 49 Metals Ltd $49M is set to be listed on ASX via an A$10M raise; their focus is on gold in the US. CPS Capital Group is the lead manager, and the price on listing will be A$0.20/share.
• Chilean Metals $CMCG is now listed on TSXV, and Silver Mountain Resources $AGMR upgraded to TSX.

Typically, we expect a lift in targets and weakness in acquirers, and often, peers to targets get extra love. For IPOs, we keep an eye on listing day/week, as big swings may point to opportunities.

News, rating updates and research reports

• OR Royalties Inc $OR Price Target Raised to C$70.00/Share From C$61.00
• Atico Mining Corporation $ATY provides update on permitting process at their La Plata gold-copper project in Ecuador >> read
• ATEX Resources Inc. $ATX Initiated at Buy, Price Target Announced at C$5.50/Share
• ST GEORGE MINING LIMITED $SGQ announces resource upgrade, Price Target Raised 15% to A$0.23/Share >> read
• Newmont Corporation $NEM Maintained at Buy, Price Target Raised to $150.00/Share From $118.00
• Fuerte Metals Corporation $FMT awards contract for the Coffee Gold Project’s northern access route construction. >> read
• Pan American Silver $PAAS record 2025 results set the stage for higher silver output and project growth in 2026 >> read

Commentary on X

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Some people may say ‘chicken or egg’ here, but as with anything, the value comes from how you use it. I’m not saying you can blindly follow this, or isolated from other indicators, but as part of our toolkit.

Momentum in any of these levels, and search terms of interest, is evidence of sentiment and a strong signal for action. Some of those people fueling the trend will act. This can lift volume, more typically on the long side, but it can be in either direction (trend must be well understood to get a sense of which way).

As more generalist investors enter the natural resources space, monitoring these trends may be a source of spectacular clues. Let’s pay close attention.

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• Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy by Robert T. McGee

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Sources: Canaccord research, Bloomberg, Reuters, Mining.com, TradingView, ASX, TMX, NASDAQ, LSE and SRC research. Figures shown in US dollars unless clarified.