Houston, we have a (duration) problem

Hey hey – lots to talk about in metals, stocks, and above all, opportunities.

Space exploration and mining have more in common than most people realise.

I wasn’t alive to witness the Apollo 11 landing, but like many others I’ve watched hours of the Artemis program in awe. After more than 50 years, humans returned to our celestial dance partner — if only to wave.

That long hiatus mattered.

Technology had evolved. The engineers and scientists who powered Apollo had retired — or passed away. Institutional memory faded. The world changed. Entire systems had to be redesigned from scratch. The result? Massive delays, ballooning timelines, and a sobering reminder of how difficult it is to restart something once time stretches too far.

And that’s where the parallel with mining becomes impossible to ignore.

Time.

At IMARC not long ago, I was part of a panel discussing the main challenges facing mining investment. I had prepared to talk about familiar issues — permitting, regulation, social licence. But as the discussion unfolded, it became clear that a more fundamental issue sat underneath everything else.

A duration mismatch.

Mining projects routinely take many years — often decades — to move from discovery to production, while most investors operate on far shorter horizons. Public markets, in particular, are conditioned to expect results within quarters, not generations.

According to S&P Global, the average global timeline from discovery to production now exceeds 16 years, stretching even longer for large deposits and certain jurisdictions. That is simply too long for most pools of capital.

We don’t have to look far for examples.

Take the Serra Verde REE deal. A success story by every measure. PE Denham posted that they discovered the deposit 15 years ago, while commercial production started just in 2024.

Or Los Azules in Argentina — part of my own professional journey. Initial work there began more than two decades ago. We’ve held McEwen for roughly half that time. Feasibility studies were completed last year, and if everything aligns, production could begin around 2029.

Between the starting line and the finish line of a mining project, governments change, policy frameworks shift, commodity cycles rise and fall — and people retire, or die.

To fully realise the inherent value of these assets requires exceptionally patient capital. And patience, today, is a scarce resource.

Sector‑specialist investors understand this reality, and some are willing to underwrite it. But they are few — far too few to support the level of supply growth implied by global energy transition forecasts.

Generalist investors may be increasingly interested in mining, but they bring shorter time horizons and different expectations.

So where does that leave us?

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Let’s put a pin on it for a sec and talk about what we’re paying attention to this week:

Macro snippets

• Copper shows exceptional strength, hovering above $6/lb as the precious metals tempered their run. Markets are paying more attention to positive announcements, it seems, as the war is not yet over…
• Economic calendar: Aussie mining & energy big players quarterlies, including BHP, Fortescue.
• Regulatory: US Senate overturns Minnesota mining ban, Trump expected to sign. Opens the door for Antofagasta’s Twin Metals copper, cobalt and nickel project, as well as other proposed mines in the region bordering Canada.

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Meanwhile…

These companies are making bold moves.

Deals, capital raising and IPOs

• US Elemental, a new lithium miner, to go public following $571M SPAC deal 
• USA Rare Earth acquires Serra Verde Group in ~2.8 billion deal

USA Rare Earth agreed to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde in a cash-and-stock transaction, adding to a string of recent deals in the industry https://t.co/u1E17wWNMq

— Bloomberg (@business) April 20, 2026

*If you’re viewing this via email, click on the date to view the full tweet and any available sources.

• Kaoko Metals $KAO is set to be listed on ASX via an A$6.5M raise; their focus is on copper in Namibia. Cumulus Wealth is lead manager, Leeuwin Wealth, co-manager, and the price on listing will be A$0.20/share.
• EnviroGold Global Limited $NVRO, Gemdale Gold Inc. $GEMG and Crossroads Gold $CRG are now listed on TSXV.

Typically, we expect a lift in targets and weakness in acquirers, and often, peers to targets get extra love. For IPOs, we keep an eye on listing day/week, as big swings may point to opportunities.

News, rating updates and research reports

• ST GEORGE MINING LIMITED $SGQ signs strategic alliance for rare earths processing with European engineering firm >> read
• CleanTech Lithium Plc $CTL on track for a substantial rerate, Speculative Buy with Target 20p >> read
• Orla Mining Ltd. $OLA on track to meet full year gold production guidance >> read
• Agnico Eagle Mines Limited $AEM Maintained at Outperform, Price Target Raised to C$345/Share From C$330 >> read

Commentary on X

Commentary on video

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Asking investors to wait 15 or 20 years to realise value is not realistic. If mining wants broader capital support, cycle times must shrink and returns must become more visible, sooner.

There are several paths emerging:

• Reducing exploration risk by applying AI, machine learning, and advanced data analytics to discovery. Improving targeting efficiency is one of the few levers we can realistically pull early in the value chain.
• Strengthening the mid‑tier, backing smaller operators that can reach cash flow faster, like Sierra Madre or Fortuna Silver
• Expanding thematic capital pools, including ETFs and funds that allocate across the mining spectrum — explorers, developers, and producers — as part of broader transition or materials strategies, such as LIT

Within the industry, we like to say “grade is king.”

Outside it, the real king is something far more immediate.

Cash flow.

And unless mining finds ways to compress time, capital will keep gravitating to sectors where value is realised not in decades — but in years.

Where do you stand on this one? Would love to hear.

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• Atomic Habits by James Clear

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Sources: Canaccord research, Bloomberg, Reuters, Mining.com, TradingView, ASX, TMX, NASDAQ, LSE and SRC research. Figures shown in US dollars unless clarified.