5,000 hints for copper’s next chapter

Hey hey – lots to talk about in metals, stocks, and above all, opportunities.

(plus last chance to RSVP to our investor lunch in Sydney)

For decades, Chile has sat unchallenged at the top of global copper production. It isn’t a recent achievement or a cyclical spike — it’s a structural reality. In 2024 alone, Chile produced around 5.3 million tonnes of copper, comfortably ahead of every other producer on the planet. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru round out the podium, but Chile remains the benchmark.

These are absolute leaders. The countries every major miner, investor, and government watches when thinking about future of copper supply.

But here’s the thing.

The next chapter may require looking just a little bit east.

Argentina.

The country hasn’t earned a place on that podium, as their only copper mine, Alumbrera, was shut down in 2018 after exhausting reserves.

But the absence is becoming increasingly misleading.

Stretching more than 5,000 kilometres, the border between Chile and Argentina cuts straight through the Andes — one of the most copper‑endowed mountain belts on Earth. Geology, after all, doesn’t recognise borders. The same magmatic systems that host Chile’s world‑class porphyries continue across the frontier, where Argentina hosts a growing pipeline of large, advanced copper projects.

For years, those projects have been stuck in a holding pattern. Not because of geology. Not because of scale. But because of uncertainty — regulatory, fiscal, political, and economic. Capital at this level doesn’t tolerate ambiguity, and Argentina has historically supplied too much of it.

That is now changing.

Under President Javier Milei, Argentina is signalling a decisive shift toward market‑friendly policies, fiscal discipline, and a clearer framework for foreign investment. Whether one agrees with his politics or not, the direction of travel is unmistakable: certainty is becoming a policy goal.

And for copper, certainty matters.

I know you’re thinking. Will it work this time? I’ll tell you my 2 cents.

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Let’s put a pin on it for a sec and talk about companies making bold moves:

Dealmakers

• Critical Metals to buy European Lithium for ~$835 million
• Rare Earths Americas seeks $368M IPO valuation

Critical Metals agreed to buy European Lithium in a stock deal valued at about $835 million, adding to a spate of takeovers in critical minerals https://t.co/MJcVu0qshn

— Bloomberg (@business) April 27, 2026

*If you’re viewing this via email, click on the date to view the full tweet and any available sources.

• Wolfe Energy Pty Ltd $WFE is set to be listed on ASX via an A$7M raise; their focus is on uranium in the US. CPS Capital Group and Evolution Capital are joint lead managers, and the price on listing will be A$0.20/share.
• Lumina Metals $LMCU is now listed on TSXV.

Typically, we expect a lift in targets and weakness in acquirers, and often, peers to targets get extra love. For IPOs, we keep an eye on listing day/week, as big swings may point to opportunities.

Movers and shakers

• Newmont Corporation $NEM Price Target Raised to $129.00/Share From $116.00, Maintained at Hold by TD
• Pan American Silver $PAAS Price Target Maintained With a $75.00/Share by RBC Capital
• Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. $SM announces shareholder approval of the Del Toro Mine acquisition from First Majestic $AG >> read
• ST GEORGE MINING LIMITED $SGQ releases quarterly update with resource upgrade, major partnerships and governmental support, with a strong cash position at $43M >> read
• Agnico Eagle Mines Limited $AEM reports results for Q1, adjusted EPS beats estimates on record margins >> read

Commentary on X

Commentary on video

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Several major deposits along the Andean margin — many already discovered, drilled, and technically de‑risked — don’t need higher copper prices to work. They need predictability. Stable rules. Confidence that long‑dated capital won’t be punished mid‑cycle.

If Argentina delivers that, the country doesn’t need to rival Chile overnight to matter. It simply needs to move. Even one or two large projects entering construction would alter perceptions — and eventually, supply forecasts.

So, while Chile’s dominance remains unquestioned, the smart money is starting to scan the horizon.

Argentina may not be on the chart yet. But the geology is there. The projects are there.

And for the first time in a long time, the conditions to unlock them might be too.

Where do you stand on this one? Would love to hear.

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• Atomic Habits by James Clear

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Sources: Canaccord research, Bloomberg, Reuters, Mining.com, TradingView, ASX, TMX, NASDAQ, LSE and SRC research. Figures shown in US dollars unless clarified.